Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, December 14th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, mostly a result of stock weakness. The major stock indexes are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 169 points and the Nasdaq down 48 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.89%), but we likely will see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Thursday’s early pricing.

5/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.89%

169


Dow


24,427

48


NASDAQ


7,021

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,30 year securities)

Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction was a bit stronger than Wednesday’s 10-year Note sale. Bonds improved slightly after results were posted at 1:00 PM ET, but it was not enough to change mortgage rates.

High


Neutral


Retail Sales

November’s Retail Sales data was today’s big report. The Commerce Department announced at 8:30 AM that retail-level sales rose 0.2% last month, matching forecasts. A secondary reading that excludes more volatile and costly auto transactions showed a 0.2% rise also but was expected to rise 0.3%. That was the good news in the report. The bad news was a 0.3% upward revision to both readings for October. The net result is basically a neutral impact on mortgage rates this morning.

Medium


Negative


Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Also posted this morning was November's Industrial Production report. It showed that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.6%, exceeding forecasts of a 0.3% increase. The larger than expected increase indicates parts of the manufacturing sector were stronger than many had thought last month. Because bonds tend to thrive during weaker economic conditions, this was unfavorable news for mortgage rates. Fortunately, it is only a moderately important release, preventing a noticeable impact on this morning’s rates.

Medium


Unknown


None

Next week starts off light with little scheduled that may affect mortgage rates but things change mid-week when the FOMC meeting adjourns. Look for expectations of it and the rest of the week’s events in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.